As an organizing principle, I don’t believe in ranking relievers highly (or at all, really) in good systems. Time and again, the efforts of the public baseball community to project reliever performance have been shown to be little more than random guess work. There are also just a higher volume of other good players in more valuable roles for us to talk about.
That’s not a universal rule though. Ryan Lambert checked in at 19 (right behind the only other reliever on the list, Dylan Ross) on our offseason top-25 and I like him a lot. We’re all familiar with the “don’t scout the statline” maxim, but man what a statline; Lambert hasn’t posted an ERA above 1.71 or a K-BB% below 21.5% at any level since being drafted out of Oklahoma in the 8th round of the 2024 draft. When he started the year at Brooklyn (for some reason), he posted a -0.48 FIP (not a typo) over 8 innings with 17 strikeouts and a single walk.
Fundamentally, Lambert is a 95-and-a-slider relief prospect. It’s a very special 95 though, an IVB-heavy offering that he consistently blows by batters at the top of the zone. The Mets organizationally place a lot of emphasis on fastball whiffs, and Lambert fits that philosophy to a T. As for the slider component, it’s a less consistent offering, stuck in a bit of a middle ground between a high-velocity breaker (it consistently sits in the mid-to-upper 80s) or a sweeper with bigger movement. There have been flashes here though, and its’ not unreasonable to project a bit more improvement with additional reps. I’d guess he eventually lands on a bit of a harder slider that pairs better with his vert-heavy 4-seam rather than a true sweeper which might be too visually distinct to fool batters.
Lambert is of course not perfect. In addition to the slider being a work in progress, his command remains a bit spotty, and his walk rate ballooned to 14.7% in Double-A last year. The impact of his fastball might be somewhat muted at higher levels by his over-the-top slot, an arm angle where this type of movement isn’t as surprising for hitters. All the usual pitching and relief prospect risks apply as well.
But when you’re building from a foundation as strong as Lambert’s primary offering in a system that has been as successful as the Mets have been recently in improving pitchers, I think you bet on this upside playing out. There’s legitimate late-inning upside here, even if most relief prospects we say that about wind up as much less. Expect Lambert to start in Triple-A this season and get a shot with the major league side before too long.
Plus he’s a metalhead who loves steak. I mean, how can you not love that.