So much of the offseason conversation around the Orioles pertained to their rotation. The unit was a failure in 2025 for a myriad of reasons, and the team’s President of Baseball Operations Mike Elias vowed to address them over the winter. To Elias’ credit, he certainly made moves with the rotation in mind, but he (yet again) did not land a bonafide ace, which has some in the fanbase panicked about a repeat of last year.
The source of the Orioles’ pitching struggles in 2025 were injuries. Kyle Bradish and Tyler Wells came into the year with known timetables for return. They were recovering from in-season Tommy John surgery the prior year and would not be available until late in the season. Grayson Rodriguez entered with less clarity. He had been out with a lat injury since August of 2024. Then in the spring he developed elbow discomfort. The former top prospect wound up missing the entire season. Zach Eflin battled a nagging back injury that impacted his performance and ended his season in July. On top of that, Trevor Rogers didn’t make it back until late May after he suffered a kneecap dislocation in January.
By the time Rogers was healthy, the Orioles season had already slid off a cliff. Brandon Hyde had been fired as manager, and the hole that the team had dug for itself was basically insurmountable. Seven terrible weeks to begin the year was all it took, and while it was not only the fault of a flawed and thin rotation, they certainly didn’t help.
Elias claimed early in the offseason that his goal was to add one or two “frontline” arms to the rotation. It was a straightforward plan. But as the winter unfolded it became less clear what Elias meant by “frontline.”
The team’s biggest splash in the starting market came via trade. In mid-December, they acquired 26-year-old righty Shane Baz from the division rival Rays in exchange for four prospects and a Competitive Balance Round A pick. It was a steep price to pay for any pitcher, but especially one coming off of a season that saw him post a 4.87 ERA. The peripherals are better than the top-line numbers for Baz. He also has three years of team control, two minor league options, and a recent track record of being healthy (after missing the 2023 season following Tommy John surgery).
It is clear that the Orioles view Baz as their ceiling-raiser. New manager Craig Albernaz thinks the pitcher can be in the conversation for the Cy Young. He was once a highly-regarded prospect and viewed as the future ace in Tampa, but that was a few years (and injuries) ago. The Orioles will be leaning on that potential heavily in 2026.
The other two moves for the rotation seem focused on depth. In late December, Eflin re-joined on a one-year deal with a mutual option for 2027. And just a few days ago, Chris Bassitt signed a contract to spend the upcoming season in Baltimore.
Eflin is a known commodity to the Orioles. Acquired in another trade with the Rays back in 2024, he was fantastic right out of the chute. He threw 55.1 innings for the Orioles that year, had a 2.60 ERA, and delivered a great playoff start. Last year was a different story. Nearly all of his numbers went in the wrong direction (5.93 ERA, 1.416 WHIP, 11.6 hits/9), and it seemed like his back was a major problem the entire time. The righty never looked right, and the season was ultimately a throwaway. Coming into 2026, Eflin claims that the lumbar microdisectomy procedure he underwent, and the rehab that followed, has cleared up the issue.
Bassitt is being signed for dependability. Soon-to-be 37 years old, the righty has thrown 157 innings or more in each of his last five seasons. His ERA has sat between 3.15 and 4.16 in every full season since 2019. And he has been worth 2.0 bWAR or better in six of his last seven seasons. If all else fails, the Orioles will probably be able to count of Bassitt going out there every fifth (or sixth) day and putting a competitive effort together.
That trio will join the in-house core of Rogers, Bradish, and Dean Kremer as the six central figures of the Orioles’ 2026 rotation. At the moment, it is unclear what the plan will be for deployment of those six. There is an expectation that Bradish could be on an innings limit given his limited action the last two years, so perhaps his turn his skipped on occasion. Eflin might be handled conservatively early on as well, just given how his 2025 ended.
Not only are the Orioles starting off the spring healthier than they did a year ago, it also feels like they are better positioned to absorb an injury or two than they were going into 2025. Wells is being stretched out as a starter in spring training, and would seem to be the “next man up,” but the team could decide he fits best in the bullpen. Cade Povich threw over 130 innings between Baltimore and Norfolk last year, and has enticing peripheral numbers. The southpaw is poised to make a few spot starts or step in for any IL stints. Brandon Young and Albert Suárez are capable to pitch in here and there as well. And we could even see a prospect like Trey Gibson get involved at some point.
FanGraphs estimates the value of each position group heading into the upcoming season. They have the Orioles rotation as the 17th-best in MLB, but the worst in the AL East. That isn’t surprising. Just think of the names and pedigrees on some of the other staffs in the division. The Blue Jays just went to the World Series, and then gave Dylan Cease a ton of money. The Red Sox were hyper aggressive in supplementing their rotation. The Yankees have several high-paid, marquee arms. And the Rays seem to churn out quality pitchers with ease. The Orioles do feel like a step behind.
But the gap, based on the FG estimates, is not as massive as you might think. They believe the Orioles staff will be worth 11.8 fWAR, the Red Sox are way up there at 18 fWAR, but then the Blue Jays are worth just 14.5 fWAR, the Yankees are at 13.5 fWAR, and the Rays are 13.1 fWAR. The O’s are at least in the ballpark.
It should be said that the projection for the Orioles staff also feels a bit modest. It expects Rogers to crash back to reality, for Baz to be more of what he was in ‘25 rather than a game changer, and for Bassitt and Eflin to be mostly fine. That’s a perfectly realistic potential outcome. But I (a seriously biased Orioles fan), would expect someone in the group to outperform those numbers while the likelihood that anyone dips too far below them feels less plausible
But let’s be clear about how Elias likes to build his teams. He believes in offense first. That is reflected in the way he drafts. Position players go early and form the core of his organization. Pitchers are riskier, so they go later, while he relies on the development staff to craft them into useable big leaguers. In free agency, he doesn’t like to give pitchers multi-year deals. There’s too much to worry about with older arms. One year deals are fine for them. He prefers to look for upside on the trade market.
That will be the approach for the 2026 Orioles as well. Elias went out and signed Pete Alonso to a huge contract. That was after he gave up the potential of Rodriguez for one year of Taylor Ward in the outfield. And don’t forget about the extension given to Samuel Basallo last summer. The long-term hopes, dreams, and finances of the Baltimore Orioles are largely tied up in the lineup. Meanwhile the starting staff was supplemented with a pair of veteran additions on short contracts and a gamble on the trade market.
It is the lineup that will need to lead this team to glory, or least keep them competitive until the trade deadline. If the Orioles are in the mix, Elias has shown a willingness to be aggressive in July. Not all of his moves have worked out, but there have been a lot of them.
One significant in-season trade that adds to the rotation could be enough to push them from being the 17th-best group in baseball to right around the top 10. That sort of solidly above-average pitching staff, plus a potentially elite offense has the Orioles right where they want to be, in the playoffs with a chance to go on a run. That is what Elias is aiming for, and with spring training just underway he has built the club in his image. We will see if the outcome is different this time.