With spring training opening up this week, many people are going to start remembering that baseball is about to begin. Hearing the pitchers and catcher popping mitts again is always the best sound reminder that we have that our blessed game is around the corner and soon after that, position players will return.
Then we’ll have actual games!
As always, whenever a new season begins, there are new storylines to follow that will have a rather sizeable impact on how the season could possibly play out. The major ones have already been talked about in other formats – the health of Zack Wheeler, the happiness of Bryce Harper. Instead of simply rehashing them, let’s talk about a little more niche things to keep an eye on once practices and games start to begin.
How does Jose Alvarado look?
There has been a lot of complaining this offseason about the Phillies not making enough changes to a roster that has failed to return to the World Series since making in 2022. Some of it is fair, some of it eyebrow raising. Yet something that has been overlooked is that their bullpen is suddenly, at least on paper, one of the better overall units in the game. They have a lot of pitchers that can get outs by themselves via the strikeout and can do so from the right side. It has been a weakness of theirs the last few years, to have few right handed options that could get outs without having to rely on the defense.
Yet one of their offseason moves involved trading Matt Strahm to Kansas City, weakening themselves from the left handed side in the process. They boasted three left handed pitchers in the bullpen that were all quite good, so trading Strahm represented a belief that the other two returnees – Jose Alvarado and Tanner Banks – will be good enough to withstand the loss of Strahm.
That does put a target on Alvarado’s back to regain his form from early 2025.
We know that he was suspended for 81 games last year due to a failed PED test, which makes that success a bit more suspect. He repeatedly said it was a tainted weight loss supplement that he took, which caused him to fail. When he did return, he didn’t look right at all and needed to be shut down for the rest of the season with an elbow issue.
That return from injury is all the more important considering the sudden lack of left handed depth they have in the bullpen. In Alvarado’s absence, Strahm stepped up and had an excellent season while Banks filled in to become one of Rob Thomson’s more trusted relievers towards the end of the season. Strahm is now gone, which leaves just the pair at the major league level. They have other options on minor league deals like Tim Mayza, Kyle Backhus and Genesis Cabrera, but it’s not exactly the same as having the trio the Phillies had to begin 2025.
What Alvarado looks like this spring will go a long way easing that anxiety that they don’t have enough. There are legitimate questions around him: how is his velocity? What kind of shape is he in? The answers to these questions need to be positive. Otherwise, there might be some issues.
What does Andrew Painter’s fastball look like?
Painter’s 2025 was something of a disappointment, depending on how one chooses to view it. From a health standpoint, he was able to get through the entire season healthy, without much of a setback, so that has to be considered a success. Production, on the other hands, was lacking. He just did not come back from his surgery and dominate in the way many thought a prospect of his caliber should. A lot of that is likely because of his fastball. Matt Winkelman put it best:
The problems start with Painter’s four seam fastball. Once an elite pitch before the injury, it was a liability by the end of the season. Predictably for a pitcher ramping back up from not pitching for two years, he gradually lost a little bit of velocity month over month. His arm slot also changed, and it led to less vertical movement. Since Painter’s height is never going to give him good attack angle on the pitch, the loss of movement led to it being very hittable in the strike zone. The problem seemed to also get worse when he introduced a sinker to his arsenal midway through the season. If Painter’s 4-seam fastball is not going to be as dynamic as it was in 2022, the sinker will help him get weak contact in the zone and is a good addition to his arsenal. If the Phillies can clean up his arm slot and find consistency between the two different fastball shapes, it won’t return it to being a dominant pitch, but it will prevent it from being a liability.
It’s going to be something to watch with Painter as the spring progresses. If he does not have that power fastball back, he’s going to have to rely on contact more than he should, which could lead to baseballs being hit into places where fielders are not occupying the space. It’s so important for pitchers in the modern game to be able to get outs via the strikeout and it really does start with the fastball.
For Andrew Painter, it could be very important.
How is Justin Crawford faring against major league pitching?
It would be one thing for Crawford to find lots of success when he’s having that success in the fifth, sixth and seventh innings. Those are the ones where the big league pitchers have gone home, gone to stretch, gone to run and the minor league options are on the mound in auditions for their organization. Considering that he has had a good amount of success against these kinds of hitters, were Crawford to replicate it during spring training, it shouldn’t be surprising.
Instead, it would be more indicative of where his level is when we see him face major league pitching. How Crawford fares against major league pitching when he gets a chance to face them is going to be crucial to see if he is truly ready to make the leap the major leagues. The team has more or less anointed him as their center fielder to begin the season, likely putting him lower in the order to lessen the burden on his production. So, it would be more productive to make sure he is hitting at or near the top of the order when games start so that he gets a chance to face that major league hitting as often as possible. Things are going to be complicated a bit when scores of pitchers he would otherwise face during Grapefruit League games head out for WBC preparation, but there will still be some that remain in their various camps. Rob Thomson and company should make sure that Crawford is seeing these pitchers as much as possible to make sure he is as accustomed to them as can be. It’s not the same thing, of course, but it’ll be the closest the team can get to major league quality pitching.