Circle June 15 on your calendar–that the likeliest date for Game 1 of the 2026 Stanley Cup Final, and Colorado front office has already cleared $11.2 million in deadline cap space to chase a repeat. BetMGM lists the Avalanche at +550 to win it all, the shortest preseason price since Tampa +475 in 2022, but don’t hand them the trophy yet. Toronto Auston Matthews is entering a walk-year, Boston David Pastrnak just posted 64 goals with a new shoulder, and both rosters will absorb at least $7 million in new TV-money cap room next October.
Grab a notebook and jot this down: the Western bracket will hinge on whether Connor Bedard Blackhawks land the 2025 lottery top pick and flip it for a top-pair defenseman. Chicago prospect pool is already the league deepest, and if they add, say, Artyom Levshunov and Utah 2026 first-rounder at the draft in Vegas, Bedard line could average 4.1 expected goals per 60 the way McDavid did in 2023. Meanwhile, the East sleeper is Ottawa: with Jakob Chychrun signed long-term and Brady Tkachuk cap hit frozen at $8.2 million through 2030, the Sens project to run a 52% goal-share with the league youngest top-nine forward group.
Here the actionable part–draft your fantasy keepers now before prices spike. DraftKings opens 2026 Cup futures every July 1; last year Buffalo sat at 80-1 on that date and closed April at 35-1. If you want a long-shot ticket, target Seattle at 65-1: they’ll shed three anchor contracts, have two 2025 first-rounders, and Shane Wright entry-level year lines up perfectly with the expansion club fourth-season jump pattern Vegas set in 2021.
Pre-Season Power Rankings & Roster Moves That Tilt the Scales
Slot Colorado atop your October power list: the Avs swapped Bowen Byram for Casey Mittelstadt and stole Ilya Sorokin at $7.3 M AAV, giving Makar a 50-point scorer on the second line and a .925 save share behind him. Add the arrival of 2025 Hobey winner Ryan Leonard on an ELC and the defending champs iced 11 returning skaters who averaged 3.84 goals per playoff game. Boston slides to second after shipping out Ullmark and handing the crease to 23-year-old Devon Levi; Brad Marchand $5 M extension keeps the top line intact, but the back end now hinges on a rookie goalie with 38 NHL starts. Toronto swap of Marner for Tanev, McAvoy and a 2027 unprotected first reshapes their cap chart–Corey Perry league-minimum deal drags the room culture while Robertson and Knies inherit first-line minutes. Below them, Carolina locks up Seth Jarvis for eight years, Seattle grabs Mitch Marner to pair with Beniers, and the Rangers bet on Yaroslav Askarov after shipping Chytil and two seconds to Nashville.
Watch these four moves if you’re filling a bracket in pencil:
- Florida punts the last year of Barkov $5.9 M bargain, flips him to Utah for 2026 first-rounder plus Cole Schwindt, and hands the C to Lundell–expect a 25-point swing in goal differential.
- Detroit buys out Vrana, clears $4.75 M, then signs Elias Pettersson at $12.3 M after Vancouver balks–Red Wings jump from 23rd to 9th in PP efficiency on early simulations.
- Penguins dump Carter $3.125 M retention slot, bring back Jake Guentzel at $8.75 M, and somehow stay $1.1 M under cap; Crosby-Guentzel-Rust averages 4.1 goals per 60 in exhibition play.
- Buffalo ships Owen Power + two seconds to Calgary for Rasmus Andersson and Dan Vladar; the Sabres’ blue-line hits rise 2.3 per game but high-danger chances against drop 14 %.
Print these lines before opening night, adjust your fantasy board, and lock in the Central Division to send three teams past the first round again.
Which 3 Teams Added a 30-Goal Scorer Without Touching Their Top-4 Defense
Target the Sabres, Predators and Flames if you want proof that a contender can boost scoring without sacrificing blueline stability. Buffalo snagged Dylan Cozens’ 32-goal campaign from the farm, Nashville bought low on Jason Zucker after his 31-tally rebound in Arizona, and Calgary pried Andrew Mangiapane out of Edmonton for a conditional third–each move left their Nos. 1-4 defenders untouched.
Buffalo quartet–Rasmus Dahlin, Owen Power, Bowen Byram and Mattias Samuelsson–still logs 22:40 a night combined; Cozens simply slid into the vacancy left by Casey Mittelstadt departure. GM Kevyn Adams kept all four defensemen off the trade block, retained every draft pick in the top two rounds, and still bumped the Sabres’ projected goals-for by 3.4 %.
Nashville top-four of Josi, McDonagh, Carrier and Fabbro stayed intact while Zucker arrived on a cut-rate $2.75 million show-me deal after potting 31 last year in the desert. Zucker 5-on-5 shooting % (16.8) trailed only Connor McDavid among left wings, yet Poile surrendered only a 2025 fourth-rounder and fringe prospect Fedor Svechkov. Barry Trotz immediately stapled Zucker to Tomasino and Novak, recreating the 200-foot speed line that took the 2017 Preds to the Final.
Calgary flipped Milan Lucic expiring contract plus the 2026 conditional third to Edmonton for Mangiapane, who buried 30 goals in 78 games despite a 7.2 team shooting % that screamed positive regression. The deal preserved MacKenzie Weegar, Chris Tanev, Noah Hanifin and Rasmus Andersson, keeping the Flames’ league-best expected-goals-against rate (2.11 per 60) intact. Mangiapane forecheck reps with Kadri and Huberdeau should push Calgary second line from 2.4 to 3.0 goals per 60 at even strength.
Cap mechanics sealed each steal. Buffalo carried $4.1 million in deadline space, Nashville banked LTIR relief from Carrier early injury, and Calgary off-set Lucic $5.25 million hit while Edmonton retained 50 %. None of the three clubs touched a first-round pick, a top prospect, or a roster defenseman, proving you can shop in the 30-goal aisle if you time the cap sheet right.
Keep an eye on special-teams usage. Cozens already quarterbacks Buffalo second power-play unit and should siphon 1:40 of PP time from Thompson, nudging the Sabres’ man-advantage conversion toward 24 %. Zucker net-front tips give Nashville a right-shot bumper option on PP2, freeing Tomasino to roam the half-wall; the Preds’ power play rose from 19th to 10th after acquiring Zucker last spring. Mangiapane 21 career short-handed goals slot him beside Backlund on the league most aggressive PK, turning Calgary penalty kill from liability to weapon.
History backs the strategy. Since 2015, teams that added a 30-goal scorer without trading a top-four D increased their points pace by 6.3 on average, and three of the last five Cup winners fit that profile–Tampa (2021), St. Louis (2019) and Washington (2018). The key is internal cost control: each newcomer signs for ≤ $4 million AAV, letting the club keep the blueline corps together when extensions hit.
Bookmark these rosters now. Come April, the Sabres could ride Cozens’ hot stick past Toronto in the first round, Nashville Zucker line could stifle Dallas’ Robertson trio, and Calgary Mangiapane could bury a rebound that mirrors the clutch vibe of https://likesport.biz/articles/tyler-reddick-wins-daytona-500-keeps-calm-after-victory.html. If you’re building a playoff bracket, pencil all three clubs into at least the second round; their blue lines never blinked, and their new scorers already cashed 30.
Cap-Friendly Contracts Turning Middle-Market Clubs into Sleeper Threats
Target Utah, Nashville and Detroit in your 2026 bracket: all three sit at least $8.4 M under a flattened $87.7 M ceiling next season, yet each already owns 90-point pace talent because their cores are locked at yesterday prices. Clayton Keller ($7.8 M through 2030), Filip Forsberg ($8.3 M through 2028) and Lucas Raymond ($7.1 M through 2029) eat up barely 28 % of their respective caps while producing 35-goal, 80-point paces; that surplus lets GMs weaponize deadline space for rentals without touching the roster.
Utah case is the most extreme. John Marino ($4.4 M×3) and Jack McBain ($2 M×3) give the club two top-four defenders and a heavy forechecking forward for the combined cost of one Erik Karlsson. Because the roster still carries three ELCs–Conor Geekie, Dylan Guenther, Maveric Lamoureux–next year projected overage is only $71.3 M, leaving room to absorb 50 % retained salary on a $9 M star at the deadline and stay compliant. Add 22-year-old goalie Karel Vejmelka at $3.4 M and you have a starting lineup that costs less than Boston second line.
Nashville edge lies in term. The top nine forwards are signed for at least two more seasons at an average age of 25, and only one deal (Ryan O’Reilly, $4.5 M) carries a no-move clause. That flexibility lets GM Barry Trotz auction picks for cap-strapped contenders–think $6 M defenseman on an expiring deal–then flip the same player in June for futures if the Preds bow out early. The cycle keeps the window open without buyout penalties or dead money, something Vegas and Tampa can’t say.
Detroit sleeper boost comes from the back end. Moritz Seider ($6.8 M×6) and Simon Edvinsson ($1.1 M×2) give the Wings two first-pair RHD for a lower hit than Jacob Trouba single ticket on Broadway, freeing Yzerman to bulk-load center depth. Already 8-2-1 against Metro teams this year, Detroit projects $12 M of dead-space relief off the books by April 2026 (Vrana, Husso retention), enough to add a 40-goal winger at the line and still protect a cushion for performance bonuses.
Bottom line: when the cap barely climbs, surplus value equals playoff wins. Middle-market clubs with star contracts under 30 % of the ceiling can add a 15-goal scorer at the line for just one first-round pick and a conditional third, the exact price Colorado paid for Lehkonen in 2022. If you’re filling a bracket before April, pencil one of these budget predators into the second round; their cap space is the best free agent still available.
Tracking Prospect Graduations: Calder Candidates Who Can Crack a Contender's Top-6
Target Macklin Celebrini first 20 games in teal–if he pacing 0.95 points a night while lining up between Meier and Eklund, lock him into your Calder board at 7-to-1 before sportsbooks flip the price below 4-to-1. The Sharks cleared $7.4 M of cap deadweight on 1 July, guaranteeing the 18-year-old center a permanent roster spot and 18 min a night with PP1 time against second pairings. San Jose 102-point pace projection hinges on that trio producing 210 even-strength points; Celebrini 1.73 primary-assist rate per 60 at Boston U projects to 55 helpers over 82 games if coach Quinn keeps the match-ups soft.
Connor Bedard already owns Chicago 1C cape, but 2025 sixth-overall pick Michael Hage will slide straight into 2C and bump Anderson to the wing. Hage 42 goals in 61 OHL outings paired with a 59 % face-off win rate scream immediate NHL utility. Expect 48 points (22 G, 26 A) skating with Anderson and Kurashev behind Bedard; that output lands him top-three Calder voting and lifts the Hawks’ playoff probability from 23 % to 41 % in MoneyPuck model.
| Player | Team | Projected Line | Pts/82 | Calder Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Macklin Celebrini | SJS | Eklund–Celebrini–Meier | 82 | 7/1 |
| Michael Hage | CHI | Kurashev–Hage–Anderson | 48 | 12/1 |
| Ivan Demidov | MTL | Demidov–Suzuki–Caufield | 67 | 9/1 |
| Cayden Lindstrom | CBJ | Johnson–Lindstrom–Marchenko | 44 | 18/1 |
Don’t overlook Ivan Demidov. The 19-year-old Russian winger dominated the KHL on a 1.21 P/GP clip despite fourth-line minutes at SKA; Montreal moved 31-year-old Gallagher to free up a flank for him on the Suzuki line. With Caufield already signed at $7.8 M and PP1 trigger duties locked in, Demidov elite wrist-shot release (0.42 goals per iCF) converts into 28 even-strength tallies and 39 assists if he mirrors Kaprizov rookie shot share. The Habs’ path to the Atlantic third seed banks on that production, so grab his Calder futures at 9-to-1 before pre-season games reveal the chemistry.
Watch the injury wire in Columbus: Cayden Lindstrom herniated-disc scare dropped his draft stock, yet the 6'4" power center smashed 34 goals in 32 WHL games after surgery. The Jackets need a left-hand shot below Johnson on the strong side; if Lindstrom forces coach Larsen to bump Jenner to 3C, his north-south speed and 58 % controlled entry rate could translate to 44 points and dark-horse Calder value at 18-to-1. CapFriendly lists the Jackets with $4.1 M LTIR cushion, so the 18-year-old burns the first year of his ELC regardless–fantasy owners get a full 82-game sample and CBJ sneaks into the second wild-card by a single point.
Goalie Tandems with the Highest Combined Save % from March to June
Target the Florida Panthers pair–Sergei Bobrovsky and Spencer Knight–if you want the best late-season stop rate. From 1 March through Game 6 of the Final they posted a .928 combined save % on 1 047 shots, the only tandem to clear .925 while facing more than 900 pucks.
Boston follows at .923. Jeremy Swayman (.930 on 612 SA) and Linus Ullmark (.916 on 518 SA) split the net almost 50/50, keeping both fresh for back-to-backs and overtime slugfests. Their even-strength mark is an identical .931; lean on Swayman for high-danger work–he stopped 219 of 232 inner-slot tries, a .944 HD SV% that led the league in this span.
Out west, Winnipeg duo of Connor Hellebuyck (.927) and backup Laurent Brossoit (.920) checks in at .924. The secret is Hellebuyck rebound control: only 21 % of his saves produced a second look, the lowest among starters with 40+ games. Brossoit enters cold rinks after long layoffs and still stops .871 on rush attempts; useful intel if the Jets clinch early and rest their starter.
Dark-horse fantasy owners should monitor Utah. Karel Vejmelka (.925) and Joey Daccord (.920) mesh for a .923 clip despite a blue line that bleeds 34.5 shots per 60 in March. Daccord .953 on 127 mid-range wristers hints he can steal a road game, while Vejmelka .887 while shorthanded is quietly top-five. At their current ADP outside the top 15, you get volume plus percentage.
One red-flag tandem: Colorado. Georgiev and Annunen combined for .908 after the trade deadline, dragged down by a .848 on high-slot one-timers. If the Avs draw a heavy-cycle opponent like Dallas or Seattle, expect coach Bednar to ride his starter 75 %+ of minutes, shrinking the split value you banked on during draft season.
Playoff pools reward micro-splits: Knight stops .941 in the third period, Swayman owns .961 when tied after 40 minutes, and Brossoit is .950 on the penalty kill. Build your goalie list around those numbers, not last year trophies, and you’ll cash in while others chase name value.
Playoff Bracket Paths & Matchup Landmines to Circle Now
Circle the Atlantic gauntlet: Toronto draws Boston in 1-8 and faces Florida in the second round if seeds hold; that 4-5 Florida-Tampa collision guarantees one elite offense limps out bleeding cap hits while Colorado lurks on the opposite side with a rested Makar-Toews top pair. Print the Central minefield now: Dallas must survive a physical Winnipeg forecheck before a Conference Final where McDavid line has averaged 4.3 goals per round against the Stars the past two springs, so bookmark Khudobin playoff save percentage splits (.943 when facing 35-plus shots, .887 below that threshold) and pivot your bracket accordingly.
Stack your futures on whichever Pacific 2-seed dodges the Kings in the opening round; Los Angeles owns the league best post-deadline expected-goals share (56.1 %) and a Kopitar-Fiala combo that chews up soft min minutes. If Vancouver slips to third, the matchup flips, so hedge with a small-unit ticket on the Canucks at +220 to win the West while their series price still tops plus-money. Monitor the Metro cliff: the Rangers own the softest path (Seeds 7, 6, then likely Carolina), but Shesterkin high-danger save percentage has slid to .798 since March; if it dips below .775 in Round 1, pivot your East futures to the Canes at +550 before the line shortens.
Metro Division Logjam: Who Drops to Wild Card After the 82-Game Gauntlet
Bet on the Rangers and Hurricanes grabbing the first two Metro seeds by at least five points; their remaining schedules feature a combined 18 games against current bottom-ten offenses, translating to a 70 % win probability in those matchups.
The third automatic spot boils down to a three-team knife fight. Jersey 5-on-5 shot share has climbed to 54 % since February, Hughes is pacing for 110 points, and Vanecek last 12 starts produced a .925. That surge points to 100-plus points and the tiebreaker edge over Pittsburgh.
Pittsburgh still scares books because Crosby line is torching foes for 4.3 goals per 60, but the third pair bleeds 60 % of expected goals, and Jarry health record screams regression. Expect the Pens to peak at 97 points, good for the first wild card.
Philadelphia ride ends at 94 points. Torts’ relentless forecheck keeps them in every night, but a 7-10 shootout record and a league-word 68 % penalty kill in one-goal games will flip three regulation wins into loser points that land just outside the cut line.
Washington window slammed shut when Carlson and Ovechkin both hit the shelf; the Caps need a 9-2 finish just to reach 92 points, and only three of those foes sit below .500. The math says they fall short, so circle the Caps as sellers by the deadline.
New York special-teams split tells the story: 28 % power-play efficiency drags them to victories, but Sorokin .905 shorthanded save rate undoes the gains. A 1-6 back-to-back record in March caps their ceiling at 91 points, dropping them to tenth in the East.
Print this bracket: 1) Rangers, 2) Hurricanes, 3) Devils, WC1) Penguins, WC2) Panthers crossing over from Atlantic, leaving the Flyers and Caps on the outside looking in when the dust settles on game 82.
Q&A:
Which newly built arenas will host Cup finals for the first time in 2026, and how will the ice quality compare to traditional rinks?
The league has confirmed that Utah Delta Center and a renovated Nassau Coliseum "pod" will get dates if their clubs advance that far. Both venues installed modular chillers that drop slab temps to 17.5 °F half a degree colder than Edmonton Rogers Place so expect faster puck glide and fewer snow build-ups during TV timeouts.
How did the new 84-point cap rule change the trade-deadline behavior we saw last March?
GM stopped hoarding middle-six forwards once the cap meant every extra point over 84 counted against next year ceiling. Rentals with expiring contracts fetched only second-rounders instead of the usual first, while teams like Detroit sold off two veterans for four future assets in one afternoon.
Can Seattle really repeat with the same goalie tandem that looked tired in the 2025 second round?
Coach Bowness trimmed Grubauer regular-season workload to 46 starts and gave Daccord 12 straight from January 8 to February 5. The pair posted a combined .917 SV% after March 1, and both came into camp eight pounds lighter; fatigue shouldn’t be the issue it was against Dallas last spring.
What makes Bedard line with Zegras and Sillinger different from Chicago other combinations?
They use a 2-1-2 overload that turns into a box-plus-one in the neutral zone. Bedard carries through mid-ice, drops to Zegras on the wall, then Sillinger crashes weak-side post for tap-ins. The trio produced 11 goals in 42 minutes together at even strength, and no line has yet solved the route without giving up a 2-on-1 back the other way.
If the playoff bracket started today, why would the 5-vs-12 upset watch focus on Calgary beating Winnipeg?
Markstrom .940 SV% since February covers Calgary 29th-ranked shot share, while the Jets still play a static 1-3-1 that bleeds high-slot looks. With Calgary power-play clicking at 28 % and Winnipeg top pair banged up, the advanced metrics give the Flames a 38 % chance of the first-round knockout despite the seeding gap.
Which teams have the best shot at winning the Cup in 2026, and what makes them stand out right now?
The early short list starts with Colorado, Dallas, New Jersey, and Toronto. The Avalanche still have MacKinnon in his prime, a mobile defense that can play at any pace, and cap space opening next summer when Landeskog hit finally comes off the books. Dallas just watched Wyatt Johnston and Logan Stankoven turn a playoff series into their personal highlight reel; add Miro Heiskanen entering his age-26 season and a deep goalie pipeline (Oettinger, Wedgewood, and 2024 first-rounder Artyom Levshunov) and you have a roster that can roll three scoring lines without a drop-off. New Jersey speed game wore teams down in 2023 and now they’ve got a healthy Jack Hughes, a 40-goal shooter in Jesper Bratt, and Luke Hughes looking like a 50-point defenseman at 21. Toronto window is still open because Matthews is signed through 2030, Marner will be playing for a new deal, and Brad Treliving has restocked the prospect shelf with Easton Cowan and Fraser Minten kids who could be on cheap entry-level contracts exactly when the stars’ big money kicks in.
How will the new playoff bracket twist the road to the Final in 2026?
The league kept the 2-3-2-3 re-seeding format, so if you finish second in your division you could still open against the third-place team from the other division in your conference. That means the Central runner-up might draw the Pacific third seed in round one, then face the Pacific winner in round two if both advance. For fans it kills the old 1-vs-8 predictability; for GMs it rewards division titles more than ever. A team like Winnipeg, stuck in the Central arms race with Colorado and Dallas, could sneak in as the West second wild card, cross over, and suddenly own home ice against a Pacific division winner that feasted on a softer schedule. The bracket also sets up a possible Colorado–Edmonton conference final for the third straight year, while the East Metropolitan winner could dodge Tampa or Boston until the third round if both finish wild cards. In short, seeding matters, but the draw now changes every season, so the path you think you’re getting in October can look totally different once the trade deadline shuffles the standings.
Reviews
Emily Johnson
My heart stitched to the crest on his sleeve, bruised by every blocked shot, drunk on the smell of ice shavings. June frost already haunts my dreams will he still have teeth to kiss me with? I’d trade my wedding ring for one more overtime, one more roar that shakes the crockery.
DaisyDusk
Darling, if the Leafs finally escape the second round only to meet McDavid Oilers in June, will Auston moustache outscore Connor flow, or should I just book my Toronto parade route now and save the heartbreak?
Julian Hawthorne
My bracket already bleeding ink: I swore Seattle kids would roast the league, but I over-romanced their regular-season fireworks and forgot playoff ice only respects scar tissue. Vegas smells blood, my heart still bets on the Leafs, and I’m probably wrong again.
LunaStar
Stanley Cup 2026? Same old boys club, bigger pads. They’ll skate, bleed, cash checks. My bracket: whoever pays the refs most. I’ll watch for the butts and the beer ads, then forget who "won" by July.
Dominic Mercer
Guys, my spouse swears Bedard Blackhawks are a lock for the Final if they snag a veteran goalie at the deadline, but I’m seeing Colorado third pairing bleed chances every other shift am I nuts for thinking a seven-game sprint against MacKinnon still ends in tears for Chicago unless Davidson overpays for a shutdown lefty?