Is Reed Sheppard the next Steph Curry?

In some NBA circles, Reed Sheppard has a nickname.

Rule of thumb: If Basketball Reference won’t print it, neither will The Dream Shake. Hmmm. How about Triple Espresso Curry? Why not I Ran Into A Jerk From High School, He Seemed Really Excited To See Me Even Though We Were Never Friends Curry?

To quote the ever-poignant Pusha T (which in itself is a hint), if you know, you know. The more significant point, of course, is that Sheppard has garnered comparisons to Curry.

Are they legitimate?

Rockets’ Reed Sheppard can be a historic shooter

Warning: This attempt at statistical comparison is riddled with flaws.

Firstly, it’d have been better to compare Curry’s sophomore stats. Unfortunately, NBA.com’s tracking data doesn’t go back that far. The furthest back we could get was 2013-14. By then, Curry was a fringe MVP candidate, even if not the direct descendant of Khrysos that Rockets fans have grown to loathe.

Secondly, the league has changed dramatically in the last decade-and-change. Curry is the best shooter of all time, but it’s fair to say that the NBA did not know how to defend him when his style of play was beginning to crystallize. Ironically, the Rockets were instrumental in introducing some coverages that kind of, sort of mitigated his impact for stretches. It’s fair to assume Sheppard is seeing those coverages more regularly.

Lastly, Steph Curry is the best shooter of all time. It stands to reason that he’s unlikely to be number two by the time Sheppard retires. This is the highest bar.

So, the fact that Sheppard comes close to meeting it is very encouraging.

On catch-and-shoot threes, Curry shot 45.8% on 2.6 attempts per game in 2013-14. Sheppard is hitting 40.7% of his 4.4 threes per game. On pull-up threes, Curry hit 40.3% of his 4.4 attempts, while Sheppard is hitting 38.1% of his 2.0 per game.

On face value, perhaps that’s not as comparable as you’d like. The pull-up shooting is the secret sauce. That’s the skill that allowed Curry to warp the geometry of the basketball court. It’s what separates him from the Klay Thompsons and Ray Allens of the world.

Two counterpoints. First, 38.1% is a very strong percentage on pull-up triples. For context, Anthony Edwards is hitting 34.0% of his 6.0 attempts per game. There’s a simple conclusion here: Sheppard should shoot more pull-up threes. He’s got considerable breathing room for his accuracy to decline and remain one of the most effective pull-up three-point shooters in the NBA. As of now, he shoots a higher percentage than anyone in the top-10 in volume besides Ty Jerome and – you guessed it – Steph Curry.

Second, Sheppard doesn’t have to be a Curry facsimile to be one of the most impactful shooters in the NBA. Let it be said that Curry never played with a big man with Alperen Sengun’s combination of interior gravity and passing acumen. Given the potential synergy there, Sheppard’s catch-and-shoot chops could mean more for the Rockets than Curry’s meant for the Warriors.

Once again, volume is a variable. This is a neat stat that shows how much the league has changed. In 2013-14, Curry shot 8.1 threes per 75 possessions. That ranked third in the league behind Miro Telotovic (a beautiful blast from the past, what a fun player) and Gerald Green* (you’re a Rockets fan, so you know what that’s about).

*Green is the only celebrity I ever played against in NBA 2K. Random Rec. The dude played exactly like his NBA self. Finished 4/10 from three, 4/10 from the field. Pretty sure he missed 5 straight before hitting three impossible triples in a row. Surreal.

Sheppard shoots 9.7 threes per 75 possessions. That’s 12th in the league. Regardless of shot type, he needs to shoot more three-pointers. That’s true on a per-possession basis, but it’s more broadly true in general, which is a roundabout way of saying Ime Udoka needs to give him more minutes.

Could that unlock his inner Curry-ness?

Rockets’ Reed Sheppard can be a star

For Udoka to play Sheppard more, Sheppard needs to improve on defense.

He’s been doing that lately. Sheppard is gambling less. All of the hand-wringing about his efforts on that end may have been no more than a reaction to watching a rookie/sophomore on a contending NBA team.

He won’t be Curry. Nobody will. That’s fine. If Sheppard can be, say, 80% of a Steph Curry offensively plus elite defensive playmaking (even if exploitable in certain matchups), that feels like a borderline franchise player. If he can hit 90%, that’s a certified franchise stud.

If you disagree, you might be on drugs.